When Milwaukee Brewers step onto the grass at American Family Field Saturday night, the whole of Wisconsin will be holding its breath. It’s Game 5 of the National League Division Series, a winner‑takes‑all showdown that decides who moves on to the NL Championship Series on October 15. The stakes? A chance to keep the dream alive after dropping the first two games in Chicago and a chance for the Chicago Cubs to close the series in style.
Series Overview and How We Got Here
The NLDS started with the Cubs stealing two early wins at Wrigley Field – 5‑2 on Oct. 6 and 7‑3 on Oct 8 – leaving the Brewers staring at a 0‑2 deficit. Then the tide turned. Milwaukee’s home‑field advantage shone in Games 3 and 4, with a 4‑1 victory followed by an 8‑2 rout, forcing a decisive fifth game. The Brewers finish the regular season 97‑65, boasting a 52‑29 record at home, while the Cubs sit at 92‑70 with a 42‑39 road mark.
Historically, the two clubs have met 161 times through 2024, with Milwaukee holding a narrow edge (85‑76). At American Family Field, the Brewers have won 42 of those contests, while Chicago’s road success sits at 34 wins.
Pitching Duel: Peralta vs. Hendricks
On the mound for Milwaukee is Freddy Peralta, a National League Cy Young candidate who logged a 16‑7 record and a 3.12 ERA during the regular season. Across the rubber, Chicago counters with ace Kyle Hendricks, who posted a 14‑9 ledger and a 3.45 ERA. Both have been remarkably stingy this postseason, allowing three runs or fewer in each start so far.
What makes this matchup intriguing is the contrast in style. Peralta relies on a high‑spin fastball that averages 94 mph, while Hendricks mixes a deceptive changeup with pinpoint control. If the duel stays a pitcher’s duel, the game could be decided by a single swing or a defensive miscue.
How to Watch – Free and Paid Options
The national broadcast lands on ESPN at 8:07 PM ET, with a simultaneous stream on ESPN+. For fans without a cable subscription, MLB.com offers a free trial of MLB.tv that includes the NLDS games for verified subscribers. The trial period runs for seven days, giving you a window to catch the action without paying a dime.
Local Milwaukee viewers can also tune in over the air on NBC 10 (channel 10) thanks to a special regional simulcast arrangement, though the picture quality may vary.
Betting Trends and Predictions
According to a recent video by Brad Francis of PickDawgz, the betting line favors the Brewers by 0.5 runs, reflecting their home‑field edge. Scores24.live notes that Milwaukee has gone over 2.5 runs in each of the last six home games against Chicago, a trend that could sway a few sharp bettors.
Winners and Whiners’ analyst Kevin V. (article updated Oct 11, 2025 12:10 AM ET) predicts a 3‑1 victory for the Brewers, citing their offensive resurgence and the psychological boost of playing in front of an estimated 41,900 fans. The model, however, still treats the game as a toss‑up; a single error could flip the script.
What’s at Stake?
Beyond the immediate glory, the winner locks in a spot against either the Los Angeles Dodgers or the San Diego Padres in the NLCS, a series slated to start on Oct 15. For the Brewers, it would be the first time since 2018 that they reach the NLCS, while the Cubs would be looking for a rare postseason miracle that could justify their aggressive mid‑season trades.
Regardless of the outcome, the series will likely shape offseason narratives. A Brewers loss could reignite debates about manager Pat Murphy’s handling of the bullpen, while a Cubs defeat could put pressure on manager Craig Counsell to rethink his lineup construction after a dominant 6‑0 shutout on Oct 10.
Historical Rivalry Context
The two clubs have been rivals since 1969, when both were part of the National League East. Their most recent postseason clash came in the 2018 NL Central tiebreaker, a 3‑1 Cubs win at Wrigley Field that sent Chicago to the NLDS. That game still haunts Brewers fans, and tonight’s showdown offers a chance at redemption.
Data from the past decade shows home teams in this rivalry average 4.41 runs per game, while visitors score exactly 4.00. The Brewers’ regular‑season run production (3.5 per game) lagged that average, but their recent surge (8 runs in Game 4) hints they can exceed expectations when the crowd roars.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does this game affect the Cubs' postseason plans?
A victory puts Chicago into the NLCS, where they would face either the Dodgers or Padres. It also validates manager Craig Counsell’s aggressive lineup moves and keeps key relievers like Brandon Morrow on a high‑leverage role for the next round.
What are the best free streaming options for fans outside the U.S.?
International viewers can access the game through the MLB.tv free‑trial mentioned earlier, provided they create an account before the trial expires. Some regions also carry ESPN via local cable partners that stream through their own apps.
Who is the likely MVP if the Brewers win?
If Milwaukee pulls off the win, starting pitcher Freddy Peralta is a strong candidate, given his stellar season and the chance to clinch the series on home turf. A big offensive outburst from Christian Yelich could also swing the vote.
What does the betting market say about the total runs?
Most sportsbooks have set the over/under at 7.5 runs. The recent trend of both teams exceeding 2.5 runs in their last six home meetings nudges the odds toward the "over," especially if the game turns into a pitching duel that stretches into extra innings.
Will the outcome influence any upcoming trades?
A Brewers loss could accelerate talks about adding a high‑velocity reliever before the trade deadline, while a Cubs win might reinforce their decision to keep veteran starters like Jon Lester for the next season.
